France’s urban bus fleet numbers around 26,000 vehicles, of which 1,800 are replaced each year, 87 % owned by local authorities through their transport bodies. It remains dominated by diesel and natural gas, at 83 % and 14 % respectively. Until then, electric buses had grown only in the mini and midibus segment, since battery cost and performance did not make the 12-metre standard bus a viable alternative.
Demand of 800 buses a year from 2020
Three factors converge: progress on batteries and charging infrastructure, local authorities’ determination to green urban transport, and above all regulatory pressure. French energy transition law requires 50 % low-emission buses in all replacements from 2020, and 100 % from 2025.
After a tendering phase across 2016-2017, significant deliveries were expected from 2018 and could reach 800 buses a year in 2020, close to half of annual replacements, before stabilising between 800 and 1,300 a year over 2021-2025.
Paris operator RATP will account for most of that demand. Europe’s largest bus operator with around 4,500 vehicles, it launched its Bus2025 plan in 2014, targeting 80 % of the fleet electric and 20 % biogas by 2025. Outside RATP, replacements in the Paris region would represent up to 200 vehicles a year.
Beyond Paris two profiles emerge: large cities considering electric for fleet replacement, mostly standard buses on slow charging, and mid-sized cities tendering for bus rapid transit lines, mostly on fast charging. A handful of large cities, long committed to natural gas and biogas, show no notable potential before 2025.
Across Europe, demand could reach around 2,600 buses a year from 2020, against total replacements of some 14,000 a year.
Two technologies, two markets
- Slow charging, or overnight charging, where the bus runs on its battery all day and recharges at the depot over 4 to 6 hours. It requires batteries of 240 to 375 kWh, heavier, but offers wide route flexibility. It does create large night-time network loads at depots that can hold more than a hundred buses.
- Fast charging, either at stops through top-up charging lasting tens of seconds, or at termini over a few minutes. On-board batteries are far smaller, 50 to 120 kWh, but the system includes infrastructure along the route, with pantographs or inductive charging, and stations themselves often fitted with batteries or supercapacitors to smooth network demand.
The two modes call for different chemistries: high energy density for slow charging, high specific power for top-up charging.
Total cost of ownership tips once environment is priced in
Over its life, and despite energy costs three times lower, an electric bus remains 15 to 25 % more expensive than a diesel. The premium comes from batteries and charging infrastructure, which double initial investment.
But the environmental balance is strongly favourable: six times lower lifecycle CO2 emissions than combustion engines, no pollutants along the route and reduced noise. Monetising those benefits equalises total cost of ownership with a Euro V-EEV diesel, and the residual gap with Euro VI stays small.
On the supply side the landscape is shifting. Mid-sized early movers such as Solaris, Irizar and VDL, and electric mobility specialists such as Bolloré, originally a battery manufacturer, hold the ground. Large Chinese players are seeking European positions through local partnerships. Major European manufacturers, running late, are engaging with the transition, which should allow expected demand to be met.
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