With the REPowerEU plan, the European Union’s ambitious goal to produce 35 billion cubic metres (around 340 TWh) of biomethane by 2030 (compared to roughly 40 TWh today) has galvanised governments, the industry, and investors across the EU. A variety of regulatory and fiscal frameworks have recently been introduced by member states: mandatory biomethane blending in gas supply (e.g., GGE in the Netherlands, CPB in France, as well as similar schemes in Austria, Ireland, and Germany), quota systems incentivising biomethane in the transport sector (such as Germany’s GHG quotas and the Netherlands), and tax policies promoting greener gas consumption in industry (e.g., Denmark).
By 2025, with greater integration towards a unified European biomethane market, the routes to monetising renewable gas are expected to multiply, and cross-border biomethane flows should intensify. These flows are likely to originate from countries with low-cost, highly sustainable production (e.g., Italy, the United Kingdom, Denmark) and move towards countries with stronger market valuations for end uses (e.g., Germany, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden).
In a market context that will remain uncertain, project developers and their financial partners will require expertise and tools, which E-CUBE has developed to tackle the complex questions that will persist in 2025:
- Which final markets are or will be accessible for my production, considering its characteristics (production country, carbon intensity score, public support programmes it has benefited from)?
- What are the most promising market segments and off-takers, and what is their “willingness-to-pay” for biomethane?
- What price projections should be considered for the next 15 years?
- How can market risks be assessed?
E-CUBE has published a detailed study exploring the challenges and opportunities related to uncertainties in the European biomethane market. Access it via this link.
E-CUBE has developed strong expertise in Biomethane transition through its recent projects and the experience of its consultants. We would be delighted to discuss these market perspectives and opportunities with you. Feel free to contact our experts below to arrange a discussion on the topic.
