2026: Between Climate Ambitions and Economic Realities
After nearly a decade marked by the enthusiasm of the Paris Agreement and the post-Covid acceleration of climate commitments, 2026 begins with a profoundly transformed landscape. European companies, which had set strong decarbonization ambitions, now face a more complex reality: economic slowdown, social and political tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties create a less encouraging external environment. Moreover, decarbonization pathways, long driven by “quick wins” (greening electricity via Guarantees of Origin, pilot projects benefiting from subsidies, energy efficiency measures with short payback periods, etc.), now require structural efforts: heavy investments, reorganization of value chains, and difficult trade-offs between economic performance and energy transition in a context of greater frugality in private sector spending and public aid.
This context has created a challenging business context around decarbonization. Increasingly strict compliance rules and the proliferation of normative frameworks—taxonomies, CSRD, SBTi—are being questioned, and where climate ambition must coexist with imperatives of competitiveness, profitability, and affordability. The financial sector illustrates this tension well, as seen in the disappearance of the Net Zero Banking Alliance initiative only four years after its creation, due to its inability to resolve the trade-off between environmental objectives and fossil fuel financing needs.
At the same time, the external environment is becoming far more constraining. The European Union is strengthening its regulatory arsenal with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, while carbon pricing systems now cover nearly 30% of global emissions (vs. 14% in 2015 and 7% in 2005). Furthermore, the physical impacts of climate change are increasingly evident and material for businesses. These developments reflect an irreversible trend: the energy transition is no longer optional—it is a condition for long-term viability.
Faced with these challenges, 2026 will be a year requiring strategic clarity. Companies will need to reconcile ambition and realism by prioritizing accessible, high-impact actions within their value chains, while also exploring—or revisiting—the development of corporate carbon certificates to finance climate investments, as seen increasingly in sectors such as steel, cement, and transportation. They may also resort to various tools for contributing to climate neutrality both within and beyond their value chains. The evolution of historical frameworks (e.g., SBTi, NZi) and, more importantly, the emergence of new standards to recognize these climate efforts reflect a gradual reconciliation between ambition and realism. This reconciliation will be necessary to provide flexibility and foster innovation—without sacrificing methodological rigor and integrity.
E-CUBE has developed strong expertise on the topic of energy and climate strategy through its recent projects and the experience of its consultants. We would be delighted to discuss these market perspectives and opportunities with you. Please feel free to contact the experts below to schedule a conversation on the topic.
