The Return of the Nuclear vs. Renewables Clash in France in 2026—Could It Also Claim a Nuclear Victim?
The nervousness among French renewable energy professionals had been palpable forseveral months, amid repeated delays in publishing the PPE and the growing gap betweentheir development pipelines and the volumes expected from CRE tenders. The release ofRTE’s latest Forecast Report at the end of this year marked the peak of this tension—andlikely a turning point. The announcement of a mission entrusted to Jean-Bernard Lévy andThierry Tuot, whose appointment worries the sector, had already begun to prepare mindsfor change.
The stagnation in electricity demand has ultimately undermined the compromise patientlybuilt by RTE on the complementarity between nuclear and renewables in the French powermix. And ironically, it is RTE once again that has become the instrument of thiscompromise’s unraveling.
While it is reassuring that any adjustments will be made without altering thedecarbonization trajectory of the power system, there is a second irony: the delay inelectrification (in France and more broadly in Europe) could claim another victim—nuclear,in its SMR version. Indeed, 2025 also witnessed hesitations regarding the role and ambitionof these small reactors: from questions about the relevance of “small reactors” in well-interconnected European power systems with robust transmission networks (as opposedto deployment on constrained or isolated grids), to their repositioning toward low-carbonheat production.
In Europe and beyond, it is now imperative to resolve uncertainty about whether SMRs can be deployed faster or more economically than EPRs, or whether they can meet new business models (such as powering industrial clusters operating off-grid). Furthermore, the ability of these reactors to modulate their output to respond to price signals and physical constraints on transmission networks is becoming a key issue for project developers and grid operators. Otherwise, they risk being sacrificed as well, lacking outlets for their electricity in competition with refurbished large reactors and new EPRs.
In this context, some SMR/AMR developers are evolving their designs to:
- Adapt power output to the needs of local consumers (data centers, industrial sites, district heating networks)
- Modify the balance between heat and electricity production, or make it easier to adjust for each installation
- Prepare for industrial-scale production, notably by standardizing components through partnerships with industrial players—aiming to reduce costs, production timelines, and project risks
The year 2025 was marked by the first final investment decision for a commercial SMR in the West (Ontario Power Generation’s BWRX-300 SMR at Darlington, Canada). In 2026, we can expect technical maturation of SMR projects (notably in France, following the selection of winners in phase 2 of the “innovative nuclear reactors” call for projects under the France 2030 program) and progress in discussions with end customer and financiers on commercial and contractual arrangements.
E-CUBE has developed strong expertise on the topic of New Nuclear reactors through its recent projects and the experience of its consultants. We would be delighted to discuss these market perspectives and opportunities with you. Please feel free to contact the experts below to schedule a conversation on the topic.
